Long-term forecasts of age-specific participation rates with functional data models

Thomas Url (), Rob Hyndman and Alexander Dokumentov ()

No 3/16, Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers from Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics

Abstract: Many countries have implemented social programs providing long-term financial or in-kind entitlements. These programs often focus on specific age-groups and consequently their expenditure streams are subject to demographic change. Given the strains already existing on public budgets, long-term forecasts are an increasingly important instrument to monitor the budgetary consequences of social programs. The expected development of the labour force is a key input to these forecasts. We Produce forecasts of age-specific labour market participation rates, combining a functional data approach with information on education, marital status and other exogenous variables.

Keywords: forecast; labour supply; age-profile; smoothing (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C14 C33 J11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 39
Date: 2016
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-age and nep-lab
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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