Cross-temporal coherent forecasts for Australian tourism

Nikolaos Kourentzes () and George Athanasopoulos ()

No 24/18, Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers from Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics

Abstract: Key to ensuring a successful tourism sector is timely policy making and detailed planning. National policy formulation and strategic planning requires long-term forecasts at an aggregate level, while regional operational decisions require short-term forecasts, relevant to local tourism operators. For aligned decisions at all levels, supporting forecasts must be `coherent', that is they should add up appropriately, across relevant demarcations (e.g., geographical divisions or market segments) and also across time. We propose an approach for generating coherent forecasts across both cross-sections and planning horizons for Australia. This results in significant improvements in forecast accuracy with substantial decision making benefits. Coherent forecasts help break intra- and inter-organisational information and planning silos, in a data driven fashion, blending information from different sources.

Keywords: cross-sectional aggregation; temporal aggregation; forecast combinations; spatial correlations. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 29
Date: 2018
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-for and nep-tur
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Journal Article: Cross-temporal coherent forecasts for Australian tourism (2019)
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