COVID-19 lockdown induces disease-mitigating structural changes in mobility networks

Frank Schlosser (), Benjamin F. Maier, Olivia Jack, David Hinrichs, Adrian Zachariae and Dirk Brockmann
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Frank Schlosser: Computational Epidemiology Group, Robert Koch Institute, D-13353 Berlin, Germany; Institute for Theoretical Biology, Humboldt University of Berlin, D-10115 Berlin, Germany
Benjamin F. Maier: Computational Epidemiology Group, Robert Koch Institute, D-13353 Berlin, Germany
Olivia Jack: Computational Epidemiology Group, Robert Koch Institute, D-13353 Berlin, Germany
David Hinrichs: Computational Epidemiology Group, Robert Koch Institute, D-13353 Berlin, Germany
Adrian Zachariae: Computational Epidemiology Group, Robert Koch Institute, D-13353 Berlin, Germany
Dirk Brockmann: Computational Epidemiology Group, Robert Koch Institute, D-13353 Berlin, Germany; Institute for Theoretical Biology, Humboldt University of Berlin, D-10115 Berlin, Germany

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2020, vol. 117, issue 52, 32883-32890

Abstract: In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic many countries implemented containment measures to reduce disease transmission. Studies using digital data sources show that the mobility of individuals was effectively reduced in multiple countries. However, it remains unclear whether these reductions caused deeper structural changes in mobility networks and how such changes may affect dynamic processes on the network. Here we use movement data of mobile phone users to show that mobility in Germany has not only been reduced considerably: Lockdown measures caused substantial and long-lasting structural changes in the mobility network. We find that long-distance travel was reduced disproportionately strongly. The trimming of long-range network connectivity leads to a more local, clustered network and a moderation of the “small-world” effect. We demonstrate that these structural changes have a considerable effect on epidemic spreading processes by “flattening” the epidemic curve and delaying the spread to geographically distant regions.

Keywords: COVID-19; human mobility; mobile phones (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (28)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nas:journl:v:117:y:2020:p:32883-32890

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