Early assessment of the relationship between the COVID-19 pandemic and births in high-income countries

Arnstein Aassve (), Nicolò Cavalli, Letizia Mencarini, Samuel Plach and Seth Sanders
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Arnstein Aassve: Carlo F. Dondena Centre for Research on Social Dynamics and Public Policy, Università Commerciale Luigi Bocconi, 20136 Milan, Italy; Department of Social and Political Sciences, Università Commerciale Luigi Bocconi, 20136 Milan, Italy
Nicolò Cavalli: Department of Social and Political Sciences, Università Commerciale Luigi Bocconi, 20136 Milan, Italy; Nuffield College, University of Oxford, OX1 1NF Oxford, United Kingdom
Letizia Mencarini: Carlo F. Dondena Centre for Research on Social Dynamics and Public Policy, Università Commerciale Luigi Bocconi, 20136 Milan, Italy; Department of Management and Technology, Università Commerciale Luigi Bocconi, 20136 Milan, Italy
Samuel Plach: Carlo F. Dondena Centre for Research on Social Dynamics and Public Policy, Università Commerciale Luigi Bocconi, 20136 Milan, Italy
Seth Sanders: Department of Economics, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2021, vol. 118, issue 36, e2105709118

Abstract: Drawing on past pandemics, scholars have suggested that the COVID-19 pandemic will bring about fertility decline. Evidence from actual birth data has so far been scarce. This brief report uses data on vital statistics from a selection of high-income countries, including the United States. The pandemic has been accompanied by a significant drop in crude birth rates beyond that predicted by past trends in 7 out of the 22 countries considered, with particularly strong declines in southern Europe: Italy (−9.1%), Spain (−8.4%), and Portugal (−6.6%). Substantial heterogeneities are, however, observed.

Keywords: COVID-19; fertility; pandemics; birth rates; baby bust (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nas:journl:v:118:y:2021:p:e2105709118

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