Impacts of COVID-19 and fiscal stimuli on global emissions and the Paris Agreement

Yuli Shan, Jiamin Ou, Daoping Wang (), Zhao Zeng, Shaohui Zhang, Dabo Guan () and Klaus Hubacek ()
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Yuli Shan: Energy and Sustainability Research Institute Groningen, University of Groningen
Jiamin Ou: Utrecht University
Daoping Wang: Shanghai University of Finance and Economics
Zhao Zeng: Tianjin University
Shaohui Zhang: Beihang University
Dabo Guan: Tsinghua University
Klaus Hubacek: Energy and Sustainability Research Institute Groningen, University of Groningen

Nature Climate Change, 2021, vol. 11, issue 3, 200-206

Abstract: Abstract The global economy is facing a serious recession due to COVID-19, with implications for CO2 emissions. Here, using a global adaptive multiregional input–output model and scenarios of lockdown and fiscal counter measures, we show that global emissions from economic sectors will decrease by 3.9 to 5.6% in 5 years (2020 to 2024) compared with a no-pandemic baseline scenario (business as usual for economic growth and carbon intensity decline). Global economic interdependency via supply chains means that blocking one country’s economic activities causes the emissions of other countries to decrease even without lockdown policies. Supply-chain effects contributed 90.1% of emissions decline from power production in 2020 but only 13.6% of transport sector reductions. Simulations of follow-up fiscal stimuli in 41 major countries increase global 5-yr emissions by −6.6 to 23.2 Gt (−4.7 to 16.4%), depending on the strength and structure of incentives. Therefore, smart policy is needed to turn pandemic-related emission declines into firm climate action.

Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-00977-5

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