Potential and risks of hydrogen-based e-fuels in climate change mitigation

Falko Ueckerdt (), Christian Bauer, Alois Dirnaichner, Jordan Everall, Romain Sacchi and Gunnar Luderer
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Falko Ueckerdt: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Christian Bauer: Paul Scherrer Institute
Alois Dirnaichner: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Jordan Everall: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Romain Sacchi: Paul Scherrer Institute
Gunnar Luderer: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

Nature Climate Change, 2021, vol. 11, issue 5, 384-393

Abstract: Abstract E-fuels promise to replace fossil fuels with renewable electricity without the demand-side transformations required for a direct electrification. However, e-fuels’ versatility is counterbalanced by their fragile climate effectiveness, high costs and uncertain availability. E-fuel mitigation costs are €800–1,200 per tCO2. Large-scale deployment could reduce costs to €20–270 per tCO2 until 2050, yet it is unlikely that e-fuels will become cheap and abundant early enough. Neglecting demand-side transformations threatens to lock in a fossil-fuel dependency if e-fuels fall short of expectations. Sensible climate policy supports e-fuel deployment while hedging against the risk of their unavailability at large scale. Policies should be guided by a ‘merit order of end uses’ that prioritizes hydrogen and e-fuels for sectors that are inaccessible to direct electrification.

Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01032-7

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