Assessing the impacts of fertility and retirement policies on China’s carbon emissions

Ling Tang, Junai Yang, Jiali Zheng, Xinlu Sun, Lu Cheng, Kehan He, Ling Li, Jinkai Li (), Wenjia Cai, Shouyang Wang, Paul Drummond and Zhifu Mi ()
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Ling Tang: University of Chinese Academy of Sciences
Junai Yang: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Jiali Zheng: Xi’an Jiaotong University
Xinlu Sun: University College London
Lu Cheng: Renmin University of China
Kehan He: The University of Hong Kong
Ling Li: Capital University of Economics and Business
Jinkai Li: Beijing Institute of Technology
Wenjia Cai: Tsinghua University
Shouyang Wang: University of Chinese Academy of Sciences
Paul Drummond: University College London
Zhifu Mi: University College London

Nature Climate Change, 2024, vol. 14, issue 12, 1261-1267

Abstract: Abstract The gradual adjustment of fertility and retirement policies in China has social benefits in terms of coping with population aging. However, the environmental consequences of these policies remain ambiguous. Here we compile environmentally extended multiregional input–output tables to estimate household carbon footprints for different population age groups in China. Subsequently, we estimate the age-sex-specific population under different fertility policies up to 2060 and assess the impacts of fertility and retirement policies on household carbon footprints. We find that Chinese young people have relatively higher household carbon footprints than their older counterparts due to differences in income by age group. Relaxing fertility policies and delaying retirement age are associated with an increase in population (and labour supply) and thus increases in household carbon footprints, with the majority of these increases from the fertility side. These results may help policymakers understand interactions among those measures targeting population aging and climate action.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02162-4

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