Future climate risk from compound events

Jakob Zscheischler (), Seth Westra, Bart J. J. M. Hurk, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Philip J. Ward, Andy Pitman, Amir AghaKouchak, David N. Bresch, Michael Leonard, Thomas Wahl and Xuebin Zhang
Additional contact information
Jakob Zscheischler: ETH Zurich
Seth Westra: University of Adelaide
Bart J. J. M. Hurk: Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI)
Sonia I. Seneviratne: ETH Zurich
Philip J. Ward: Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
Andy Pitman: University of New South Wales
Amir AghaKouchak: University of California
David N. Bresch: ETH Zurich
Michael Leonard: University of Adelaide
Thomas Wahl: University of Central Florida
Xuebin Zhang: Environment and Climate Change Canada

Nature Climate Change, 2018, vol. 8, issue 6, 469-477

Abstract: Abstract Floods, wildfires, heatwaves and droughts often result from a combination of interacting physical processes across multiple spatial and temporal scales. The combination of processes (climate drivers and hazards) leading to a significant impact is referred to as a ‘compound event’. Traditional risk assessment methods typically only consider one driver and/or hazard at a time, potentially leading to underestimation of risk, as the processes that cause extreme events often interact and are spatially and/or temporally dependent. Here we show how a better understanding of compound events may improve projections of potential high-impact events, and can provide a bridge between climate scientists, engineers, social scientists, impact modellers and decision-makers, who need to work closely together to understand these complex events.

Date: 2018
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-018-0156-3

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