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A plant-by-plant strategy for high-ambition coal power phaseout in China

Ryna Yiyun Cui (ycui10@umd.edu), Nathan Hultman, Diyang Cui, Haewon McJeon, Sha Yu, Morgan R. Edwards, Arijit Sen, Kaihui Song, Christina Bowman, Leon Clarke, Junjie Kang, Jiehong Lou, Fuqiang Yang, Jiahai Yuan, Weirong Zhang and Mengye Zhu
Additional contact information
Ryna Yiyun Cui: University of Maryland
Nathan Hultman: University of Maryland
Diyang Cui: University of Maryland
Haewon McJeon: University of Maryland
Sha Yu: University of Maryland
Morgan R. Edwards: University of Maryland
Arijit Sen: University of Maryland
Kaihui Song: University of Maryland
Christina Bowman: University of Maryland
Leon Clarke: University of Maryland
Junjie Kang: Natural Resources Defense Council
Jiehong Lou: University of Maryland
Fuqiang Yang: Natural Resources Defense Council
Jiahai Yuan: North China Electric Power University
Weirong Zhang: North China Electric Power University
Mengye Zhu: University of Maryland

Nature Communications, 2021, vol. 12, issue 1, 1-10

Abstract: Abstract More than half of current coal power capacity is in China. A key strategy for meeting China’s 2060 carbon neutrality goal and the global 1.5 °C climate goal is to rapidly shift away from unabated coal use. Here we detail how to structure a high-ambition coal phaseout in China while balancing multiple national needs. We evaluate the 1037 currently operating coal plants based on comprehensive technical, economic and environmental criteria and develop a metric for prioritizing plants for early retirement. We find that 18% of plants consistently score poorly across all three criteria and are thus low-hanging fruits for rapid retirement. We develop plant-by-plant phaseout strategies for each province by combining our retirement algorithm with an integrated assessment model. With rapid retirement of the low-hanging fruits, other existing plants can operate with a 20- or 30-year minimum lifetime and gradually reduced utilization to achieve the 1.5 °C or well-below 2 °C climate goals, respectively, with complete phaseout by 2045 and 2055.

Date: 2021
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (45)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nat:natcom:v:12:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-021-21786-0

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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-21786-0

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