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Net-zero emission targets for major emitting countries consistent with the Paris Agreement

Heleen L. Soest (heleen.vansoest@pbl.nl), Michel G. J. Elzen and Detlef P. Vuuren
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Heleen L. Soest: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Michel G. J. Elzen: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Detlef P. Vuuren: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency

Nature Communications, 2021, vol. 12, issue 1, 1-9

Abstract: Abstract Over 100 countries have set or are considering net-zero emissions or neutrality targets. However, most of the information on emissions neutrality (such as timing) is provided for the global level. Here, we look at national-level neutrality-years based on globally cost-effective 1.5 °C and 2 °C scenarios from integrated assessment models. These results indicate that domestic net zero greenhouse gas and CO2 emissions in Brazil and the USA are reached a decade earlier than the global average, and in India and Indonesia later than global average. These results depend on choices like the accounting of land-use emissions. The results also show that carbon storage and afforestation capacity, income, share of non-CO2 emissions, and transport sector emissions affect the variance in projected phase-out years across countries. We further compare these results to an alternative approach, using equity-based rules to establish target years. These results can inform policymakers on net-zero targets.

Date: 2021
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (45)

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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-22294-x

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