Age-seroprevalence curves for the multi-strain structure of influenza A virus

Dao Nguyen Vinh, Nguyen Thi Duy Nhat, Erwin Bruin, Nguyen Ha Thao Vy, Tran Thi Nhu Thao, Huynh Thi Phuong, Pham Hong Anh, Stacy Todd, Tran Minh Quan, Nguyen Thi Le Thanh, Nguyen Thi Nam Lien, Nguyen Thi Hong Ha, Tran Thi Kim Hong, Pham Quang Thai, Marc Choisy, Tran Dang Nguyen, Cameron P. Simmons, Guy E. Thwaites, Hannah E. Clapham, Nguyen Van Vinh Chau, Marion Koopmans and Maciej F. Boni ()
Additional contact information
Dao Nguyen Vinh: Wellcome Trust Major Overseas Programme
Nguyen Thi Duy Nhat: Wellcome Trust Major Overseas Programme
Erwin Bruin: Erasmus Medical Centre
Nguyen Ha Thao Vy: Wellcome Trust Major Overseas Programme
Tran Thi Nhu Thao: Wellcome Trust Major Overseas Programme
Huynh Thi Phuong: Wellcome Trust Major Overseas Programme
Pham Hong Anh: Wellcome Trust Major Overseas Programme
Stacy Todd: Wellcome Trust Major Overseas Programme
Tran Minh Quan: Wellcome Trust Major Overseas Programme
Nguyen Thi Le Thanh: Wellcome Trust Major Overseas Programme
Nguyen Thi Nam Lien: Hue Provincial Hospital
Nguyen Thi Hong Ha: Khanh Hoa Provincial Hospital
Tran Thi Kim Hong: Dak Lak General Hospital
Pham Quang Thai: National Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology
Marc Choisy: Wellcome Trust Major Overseas Programme
Tran Dang Nguyen: Pennsylvania State University
Cameron P. Simmons: Monash University
Guy E. Thwaites: Wellcome Trust Major Overseas Programme
Hannah E. Clapham: Wellcome Trust Major Overseas Programme
Nguyen Van Vinh Chau: Hospital for Tropical Diseases
Marion Koopmans: Erasmus Medical Centre
Maciej F. Boni: Wellcome Trust Major Overseas Programme

Nature Communications, 2021, vol. 12, issue 1, 1-9

Abstract: Abstract The relationship between age and seroprevalence can be used to estimate the annual attack rate of an infectious disease. For pathogens with multiple serologically distinct strains, there is a need to describe composite exposure to an antigenically variable group of pathogens. In this study, we assay 24,402 general-population serum samples, collected in Vietnam between 2009 to 2015, for antibodies to eleven human influenza A strains. We report that a principal components decomposition of antibody titer data gives the first principal component as an appropriate surrogate for seroprevalence; this results in annual attack rate estimates of 25.6% (95% CI: 24.1% – 27.1%) for subtype H3 and 16.0% (95% CI: 14.7% – 17.3%) for subtype H1. The remaining principal components separate the strains by serological similarity and associate birth cohorts with their particular influenza histories. Our work shows that dimensionality reduction can be used on human antibody profiles to construct an age-seroprevalence relationship for antigenically variable pathogens.

Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-26948-8

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