Contrasting influences of biogeophysical and biogeochemical impacts of historical land use on global economic inequality

Shu Liu, Yong Wang (), Guang J. Zhang, Linyi Wei, Bin Wang and Le Yu
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Shu Liu: Tsinghua University
Yong Wang: Tsinghua University
Guang J. Zhang: Scripps Institution of Oceanography
Linyi Wei: Tsinghua University
Bin Wang: Tsinghua University
Le Yu: Tsinghua University

Nature Communications, 2022, vol. 13, issue 1, 1-14

Abstract: Abstract Climate change has significant implications for macro-economic growth. The impacts of greenhouse gases and anthropogenic aerosols on economies via altered annual mean temperature (AMT) have been studied. However, the economic impact of land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) is still unknown because it has both biogeochemical and biogeophysical impacts on temperature and the latter differs in latitudes and disturbed land surface types. In this work, based on multi-model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, contrasting influences of biogeochemical and biogeophysical impacts of historical (1850–2014) LULCC on economies are found. Their combined effects on AMT result in warming in most countries, which harms developing economies in warm climates but benefits developed economies in cold climates. Thus, global economic inequality is increased. Besides the increased AMT by the combined effects, day-to-day temperature variability is enhanced in developing economies but reduced in developed economies, which further deteriorates global economic inequality.

Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-30145-6

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