Cost increase in the electricity supply to achieve carbon neutrality in China

Zhenyu Zhuo, Ershun Du, Ning Zhang (), Chris P. Nielsen, Xi Lu, Jinyu Xiao, Jiawei Wu and Chongqing Kang ()
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Zhenyu Zhuo: Tsinghua University
Ershun Du: Tsinghua University
Ning Zhang: Tsinghua University
Chris P. Nielsen: Harvard University
Xi Lu: Tsinghua University
Jinyu Xiao: Global Energy Interconnection Development and Cooperation Organization
Jiawei Wu: Global Energy Interconnection Development and Cooperation Organization
Chongqing Kang: Tsinghua University

Nature Communications, 2022, vol. 13, issue 1, 1-13

Abstract: Abstract The Chinese government has set long-term carbon neutrality and renewable energy (RE) development goals for the power sector. Despite a precipitous decline in the costs of RE technologies, the external costs of renewable intermittency and the massive investments in new RE capacities would increase electricity costs. Here, we develop a power system expansion model to comprehensively evaluate changes in the electricity supply costs over a 30-year transition to carbon neutrality. RE supply curves, operating security constraints, and the characteristics of various generation units are modelled in detail to assess the cost variations accurately. According to our results, approximately 5.8 TW of wind and solar photovoltaic capacity would be required to achieve carbon neutrality in the power system by 2050. The electricity supply costs would increase by 9.6 CNY¢/kWh. The major cost shift would result from the substantial investments in RE capacities, flexible generation resources, and network expansion.

Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-30747-0

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