Institutional decarbonization scenarios evaluated against the Paris Agreement 1.5 °C goal

Robert J. Brecha (), Gaurav Ganti (), Robin D. Lamboll, Zebedee Nicholls, Bill Hare, Jared Lewis, Malte Meinshausen, Michiel Schaeffer, Christopher J. Smith and Matthew J. Gidden
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Robert J. Brecha: Climate Analytics
Gaurav Ganti: Climate Analytics
Robin D. Lamboll: Imperial College London
Zebedee Nicholls: The University of Melbourne
Bill Hare: Climate Analytics
Jared Lewis: The University of Melbourne
Malte Meinshausen: The University of Melbourne
Michiel Schaeffer: Climate Analytics
Christopher J. Smith: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Matthew J. Gidden: Climate Analytics

Nature Communications, 2022, vol. 13, issue 1, 1-11

Abstract: Abstract Scientifically rigorous guidance to policy makers on mitigation options for meeting the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal requires an evaluation of long-term global-warming implications of greenhouse gas emissions pathways. Here we employ a uniform and transparent methodology to evaluate Paris Agreement compatibility of influential institutional emission scenarios from the grey literature, including those from Shell, BP, and the International Energy Agency. We compare a selection of these scenarios analysed with this methodology to the Integrated Assessment Model scenarios assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We harmonize emissions to a consistent base-year and account for all greenhouse gases and aerosol precursor emissions, ensuring a self-consistent comparison of climate variables. An evaluation of peak and end-of-century temperatures is made, with both being relevant to the Paris Agreement goal. Of the scenarios assessed, we find that only the IEA Net Zero 2050 scenario is aligned with the criteria for Paris Agreement consistency employed here. We investigate root causes for misalignment with these criteria based on the underlying energy system transformation.

Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-31734-1

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