Economy-wide evaluation of CO2 and air quality impacts of electrification in the United States

John Bistline, Geoffrey Blanford, John Grant, Eladio Knipping, David L. McCollum, Uarporn Nopmongcol, Heidi Scarth, Tejas Shah and Greg Yarwood
Additional contact information
Geoffrey Blanford: Electric Power Research Institute
John Grant: Ramboll, 7250 Redwood Blvd.
Eladio Knipping: Electric Power Research Institute
David L. McCollum: Oak Ridge National Laboratory
Uarporn Nopmongcol: Ramboll, 7250 Redwood Blvd.
Heidi Scarth: Electric Power Research Institute
Tejas Shah: Ramboll, 7250 Redwood Blvd.
Greg Yarwood: Ramboll, 7250 Redwood Blvd.

Nature Communications, 2022, vol. 13, issue 1, 1-12

Abstract: Abstract Adopting electric end-use technologies instead of fossil-fueled alternatives, known as electrification, is an important economy-wide decarbonization strategy that also reduces criteria pollutant emissions and improves air quality. In this study, we evaluate CO2 and air quality co-benefits of electrification scenarios by linking a detailed energy systems model and a full-form photochemical air quality model in the United States. We find that electrification can substantially lower CO2 and improve air quality and that decarbonization policy can amplify these trends, which yield immediate and localized benefits. In particular, transport electrification can improve ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5), though the magnitude of changes varies regionally. However, growing activity from non-energy-related PM2.5 sources—such as fugitive dust and agricultural emissions—can offset electrification benefits, suggesting that additional measures beyond CO2 policy and electrification are needed to meet air quality goals. We illustrate how commonly used marginal emissions approaches systematically underestimate reductions from electrification.

Date: 2022
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-33902-9

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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-33902-9

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