Decarbonization, population disruption and resource inventories in the global energy transition

Kamila Svobodova (), John R. Owen, Deanna Kemp, Vítězslav Moudrý, Éléonore Lèbre, Martin Stringer and Benjamin K. Sovacool
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Kamila Svobodova: The University of Queensland
John R. Owen: University of the Free State
Deanna Kemp: The University of Queensland
Vítězslav Moudrý: Czech University of Life Sciences Prague
Éléonore Lèbre: The University of Queensland
Martin Stringer: The University of Queensland
Benjamin K. Sovacool: University of Sussex Business School

Nature Communications, 2022, vol. 13, issue 1, 1-16

Abstract: Abstract We develop a novel approach to analysing decarbonisation strategies by linking global resource inventories with demographic systems. Our ‘mine-town systems’ approach establishes an empirical basis for examining the spatial extent of the transition and demographic effects of changing energy systems. The research highlights an urgent need for targeted macro-level planning as global markets see a decline in thermal coal and a ramp up of other mining commodities. Our findings suggest that ramping up energy transition metals (ETM) could be more disruptive to demographic systems than ramping down coal. The data shows asymmetry in the distribution of risks: mine-town systems within the United States are most sensitive to coal phase-out, while systems in Australia and Canada are most sensitive to ETM phase-in. A complete phase-out of coal could disrupt demographic systems with a minimum of 33.5 million people, and another 115.7 million people if all available ETM projects enter production.

Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-35391-2

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