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Observationally-constrained projections of an ice-free Arctic even under a low emission scenario

Yeon-Hee Kim, Seung-Ki Min (skmin@postech.ac.kr), Nathan P. Gillett, Dirk Notz and Elizaveta Malinina
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Yeon-Hee Kim: Pohang University of Science and Technology
Seung-Ki Min: Pohang University of Science and Technology
Nathan P. Gillett: Environment Climate Change Canada
Dirk Notz: Universität Hamburg
Elizaveta Malinina: Environment Climate Change Canada

Nature Communications, 2023, vol. 14, issue 1, 1-8

Abstract: Abstract The sixth assessment report of the IPCC assessed that the Arctic is projected to be on average practically ice-free in September near mid-century under intermediate and high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, though not under low emissions scenarios, based on simulations from the latest generation Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models. Here we show, using an attribution analysis approach, that a dominant influence of greenhouse gas increases on Arctic sea ice area is detectable in three observational datasets in all months of the year, but is on average underestimated by CMIP6 models. By scaling models’ sea ice response to greenhouse gases to best match the observed trend in an approach validated in an imperfect model test, we project an ice-free Arctic in September under all scenarios considered. These results emphasize the profound impacts of greenhouse gas emissions on the Arctic, and demonstrate the importance of planning for and adapting to a seasonally ice-free Arctic in the near future.

Date: 2023
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-38511-8

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