Soil moisture–atmosphere coupling accelerates global warming

Liang Qiao, Zhiyan Zuo (), Renhe Zhang (), Shilong Piao, Dong Xiao and Kaiwen Zhang
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Liang Qiao: Fudan University
Zhiyan Zuo: Fudan University
Renhe Zhang: Fudan University
Shilong Piao: Peking University
Dong Xiao: China Meteorological Administration
Kaiwen Zhang: Fudan University

Nature Communications, 2023, vol. 14, issue 1, 1-10

Abstract: Abstract Soil moisture–atmosphere coupling (SA) amplifies greenhouse gas-driven global warming via changes in surface heat balance. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project projects an acceleration in SA-driven warming due to the ‘warmer climate – drier soil’ feedback, which continuously warms the globe and thereby exerts an acceleration effect on global warming. The projection shows that SA-driven warming exceeds 0.5 °C over extratropical landmasses by the end of the 21st Century. The likelihood of extreme high temperatures will additionally increase by about 10% over the entire globe (excluding Antarctica) and more than 30% over large parts of North America and Europe under the high-emission scenario. This demonstrates the high sensitivity of SA to climate change, in which SA can exceed the natural range of climate variability and play a non-linear warming component role on the globe.

Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-40641-y

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