Decarbonization potential of electrifying 50% of U.S. light-duty vehicle sales by 2030
Maxwell Woody (maxwoody@umich.edu),
Gregory A. Keoleian and
Parth Vaishnav
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Maxwell Woody: University of Michigan
Gregory A. Keoleian: University of Michigan
Parth Vaishnav: University of Michigan
Nature Communications, 2023, vol. 14, issue 1, 1-12
Abstract:
Abstract The U.S. federal government has established goals of electrifying 50% of new light-duty vehicle sales by 2030 and reducing economy-wide greenhouse gas emissions 50-52% by 2030, from 2005 levels. Here we evaluate the vehicle electrification goal in the context of the economy-wide emissions goal. We use a vehicle fleet model and a life cycle emissions model to project vehicle sales, stock, and emissions. To account for state-level variability in electric vehicle adoption and electric grid emissions factors, we apply the models to each state. By 2030, greenhouse gas emissions are reduced by approximately 25% (from 2005) for the light-duty vehicle fleet, primarily due to fleet turnover of conventional vehicles. By 2035, emissions reductions approach 45% if both vehicle electrification and grid decarbonization goals (100% by 2035) are met. To meet climate goals, the transition to electric vehicles must be accompanied by an accelerated decarbonization of the electric grid and other actions.
Date: 2023
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nat:natcom:v:14:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-023-42893-0
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-42893-0
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