Demographics and risk of isolation due to sea level rise in the United States

Kelsea Best (), Qian He, Allison C. Reilly, Deb A. Niemeier, Mitchell Anderson and Tom Logan
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Kelsea Best: Department of Civil, Environmental and Geodetic Engineering, The Ohio State University
Qian He: Department of Geography, Planning, and Sustainability, Rowan University
Allison C. Reilly: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Maryland
Deb A. Niemeier: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Maryland
Mitchell Anderson: Department of Civil and Natural Resources Engineering, University of Canterbury
Tom Logan: Department of Civil and Natural Resources Engineering, University of Canterbury

Nature Communications, 2023, vol. 14, issue 1, 1-9

Abstract: Abstract Within coastal communities, sea level rise (SLR) will result in widespread intermittent flooding and long-term inundation. Inundation effects will be evident, but isolation that arises from the loss of accessibility to critical services due to inundation of transportation networks may be less obvious. We examine who is most at risk of isolation due to SLR, which can inform community adaptation plans and help ensure that existing social vulnerabilities are not exacerbated. Combining socio-demographic data with an isolation metric, we identify social and economic disparities in risk of isolation under different SLR scenarios (1-10 ft) for the coastal U.S. We show that Black and Hispanic populations face a disproportionate risk of isolation at intermediate levels of SLR (4 ft and greater). Further, census tracts with higher rates of renters and older adults consistently face higher risk of isolation. These insights point to significant inequity in the burdens associated with SLR.

Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-43835-6

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