Impact of population aging on future temperature-related mortality at different global warming levels

Kai Chen (), Evan Schrijver, Sidharth Sivaraj, Francesco Sera, Noah Scovronick, Leiwen Jiang, Dominic Roye, Eric Lavigne, Jan Kyselý, Aleš Urban, Alexandra Schneider, Veronika Huber, Joana Madureira, Malcolm N. Mistry, Ivana Cvijanovic, Antonio Gasparrini and Ana M. Vicedo-Cabrera
Additional contact information
Kai Chen: Yale School of Public Health
Evan Schrijver: University of Bern
Sidharth Sivaraj: University of Bern
Francesco Sera: University of Florence
Noah Scovronick: Emory University
Leiwen Jiang: Shanghai University
Dominic Roye: Climate Research Foundation (FIC)
Eric Lavigne: Health Canada
Jan Kyselý: Czech Academy of Sciences
Aleš Urban: Czech Academy of Sciences
Alexandra Schneider: Helmholtz Zentrum München – German Research Center for Environmental Health (GmbH)
Veronika Huber: Helmholtz Zentrum München – German Research Center for Environmental Health (GmbH)
Joana Madureira: Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr Ricardo Jorge
Malcolm N. Mistry: Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
Ivana Cvijanovic: ISGlobal - Barcelona Institute for Global Health
Antonio Gasparrini: Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
Ana M. Vicedo-Cabrera: University of Bern

Nature Communications, 2024, vol. 15, issue 1, 1-13

Abstract: Abstract Older adults are generally amongst the most vulnerable to heat and cold. While temperature-related health impacts are projected to increase with global warming, the influence of population aging on these trends remains unclear. Here we show that at 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3 °C of global warming, heat-related mortality in 800 locations across 50 countries/areas will increase by 0.5%, 1.0%, and 2.5%, respectively; among which 1 in 5 to 1 in 4 heat-related deaths can be attributed to population aging. Despite a projected decrease in cold-related mortality due to progressive warming alone, population aging will mostly counteract this trend, leading to a net increase in cold-related mortality by 0.1%–0.4% at 1.5–3 °C global warming. Our findings indicate that population aging constitutes a crucial driver for future heat- and cold-related deaths, with increasing mortality burden for both heat and cold due to the aging population.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-45901-z

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