Atlantic origin of the increasing Asian westerly jet interannual variability

Lifei Lin, Chundi Hu (), Bin Wang, Renguang Wu, Zeming Wu, Song Yang, Wenju Cai, Peiliang Li, Xuejun Xiong and Dake Chen
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Lifei Lin: Zhejiang University
Chundi Hu: Zhejiang University
Bin Wang: University of Hawaii at Manoa
Renguang Wu: Zhejiang University
Zeming Wu: Zhejiang University
Song Yang: Sun Yat-sen University; and Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai)
Wenju Cai: Ocean University of China
Peiliang Li: Zhejiang University
Xuejun Xiong: Zhejiang University
Dake Chen: Sun Yat-sen University; and Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai)

Nature Communications, 2024, vol. 15, issue 1, 1-10

Abstract: Abstract The summer Eurasian westerly jet is reported to become weaker and wavier, thus promoting the frequent weather extremes. However, the primary driver of the changing jet stream remains in debate, mainly due to the regionality and seasonality of the Eurasian jet. Here we report a sharp increase, by approximately 140%, in the interannual variability of the summertime East Asian jet (EAJ) since the end of twentieth century. Such interdecadal change induces considerable changes in the large-scale circulation pattern across Eurasia, and consequently weather and climate extremes including heatwaves, droughts, and Asian monsoonal rainfall regime shifts. The trigger mainly emerges from preceding February North Atlantic seesaw called Scandinavian pattern (contributing to 81.1 ± 2.9% of the enhanced EAJ variability), which harnesses the “cross-seasonal-coupled oceanic-atmospheric bridge” to exert a delayed impact on EAJ and thus aids relevant predictions five months in advance. However, projections from state-of-the-art models with prescribed anthropogenic forcing exhibit no similar circulation changes. This sheds light on that, at the interannual timescale, a substantial portion of recently increasing variability in the East Asian sector of the Eurasian westerly jet arises from unforced natural variability.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-46543-x

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