Substantially reducing global PM2.5-related deaths under SDG3.9 requires better air pollution control and healthcare

Huanbi Yue, Chunyang He (), Qingxu Huang, Da Zhang (), Peijun Shi, Enayat A. Moallemi, Fangjin Xu, Yang Yang, Xin Qi, Qun Ma and Brett A. Bryan
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Huanbi Yue: Beijing Normal University
Chunyang He: Beijing Normal University
Qingxu Huang: Beijing Normal University
Da Zhang: Yanbian University
Peijun Shi: Beijing Normal University
Enayat A. Moallemi: Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO)
Fangjin Xu: Beijing Normal University
Yang Yang: Ocean University of China
Xin Qi: Ocean University of China
Qun Ma: Shanghai Normal University
Brett A. Bryan: Deakin University

Nature Communications, 2024, vol. 15, issue 1, 1-13

Abstract: Abstract The United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 3.9 calls for a substantial reduction in deaths attributable to PM2.5 pollution (DAPP). However, DAPP projections vary greatly and the likelihood of meeting SDG3.9 depends on complex interactions among environmental, socio-economic, and healthcare parameters. We project potential future trends in global DAPP considering the joint effects of each driver (PM2.5 concentration, death rate of diseases, population size, and age structure) and assess the likelihood of achieving SDG3.9 under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) as quantified by the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) framework with simulated PM2.5 concentrations from 11 models. We find that a substantial reduction in DAPP would not be achieved under all but the most optimistic scenario settings. Even the development aligned with the Sustainability scenario (SSP1-2.6), in which DAPP was reduced by 19%, still falls just short of achieving a substantial (≥20%) reduction by 2030. Meeting SDG3.9 calls for additional efforts in air pollution control and healthcare to more aggressively reduce DAPP.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-46969-3

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