Drivers and implications of alternative routes to fuels decarbonization in net-zero energy systems

Bryan K. Mignone (), Leon Clarke, James A. Edmonds, Angelo Gurgel, Howard J. Herzog, Jeremiah X. Johnson, Dharik S. Mallapragada, Haewon McJeon, Jennifer Morris, Patrick R. O’Rourke, Sergey Paltsev, Steven K. Rose, Daniel C. Steinberg and Aranya Venkatesh
Additional contact information
Bryan K. Mignone: ExxonMobil Technology and Engineering Company
Leon Clarke: Bezos Earth Fund
James A. Edmonds: Joint Global Change Research Institute
Angelo Gurgel: Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Howard J. Herzog: Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Jeremiah X. Johnson: Construction, and Environmental Engineering, North Carolina State University
Dharik S. Mallapragada: Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Haewon McJeon: Joint Global Change Research Institute
Jennifer Morris: Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Patrick R. O’Rourke: University of Maryland
Sergey Paltsev: Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Steven K. Rose: EPRI
Daniel C. Steinberg: National Renewable Energy Laboratory
Aranya Venkatesh: Carnegie Mellon University

Nature Communications, 2024, vol. 15, issue 1, 1-14

Abstract: Abstract Energy transition scenarios are characterized by increasing electrification and improving efficiency of energy end uses, rapid decarbonization of the electric power sector, and deployment of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies to offset remaining emissions. Although hydrocarbon fuels typically decline in such scenarios, significant volumes remain in many scenarios even at the time of net-zero emissions. While scenarios rely on different approaches for decarbonizing remaining fuels, the underlying drivers for these differences are unclear. Here we develop several illustrative net-zero systems in a simple structural energy model and show that, for a given set of final energy demands, assumptions about the use of biomass and CO2 sequestration drive key differences in how emissions from remaining fuels are mitigated. Limiting one resource may increase reliance on another, implying that decisions about using or restricting resources in pursuit of net-zero objectives could have significant tradeoffs that will need to be evaluated and managed.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-47059-0

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