Maximizing carbon sequestration potential in Chinese forests through optimal management

Zhen Yu (), Shirong Liu (), Haikui Li, Jingjing Liang, Weiguo Liu, Shilong Piao, Hanqin Tian, Guoyi Zhou, Chaoqun Lu, Weibin You, Pengsen Sun, Yanli Dong, Stephen Sitch and Evgenios Agathokleous
Additional contact information
Zhen Yu: Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology
Shirong Liu: Chinese Academy of Forestry
Haikui Li: Chinese Academy of Forestry
Jingjing Liang: Purdue University
Weiguo Liu: Northwest agriculture and Forestry University
Shilong Piao: Peking University
Hanqin Tian: Boston College, Chestnut Hill
Guoyi Zhou: Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology
Chaoqun Lu: Iowa State University
Weibin You: Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University
Pengsen Sun: Chinese Academy of Forestry
Yanli Dong: Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology
Stephen Sitch: University of Exeter
Evgenios Agathokleous: Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology

Nature Communications, 2024, vol. 15, issue 1, 1-12

Abstract: Abstract Forest carbon sequestration capacity in China remains uncertain due to underrepresented tree demographic dynamics and overlooked of harvest impacts. In this study, we employ a process-based biogeochemical model to make projections by using national forest inventories, covering approximately 415,000 permanent plots, revealing an expansion in biomass carbon stock by 13.6 ± 1.5 Pg C from 2020 to 2100, with additional sink through augmentation of wood product pool (0.6-2.0 Pg C) and spatiotemporal optimization of forest management (2.3 ± 0.03 Pg C). We find that statistical model might cause large bias in long-term projection due to underrepresentation or neglect of wood harvest and forest demographic changes. Remarkably, disregarding the repercussions of harvesting on forest age can result in a premature shift in the timing of the carbon sink peak by 1–3 decades. Our findings emphasize the pressing necessity for the swift implementation of optimal forest management strategies for carbon sequestration enhancement.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-47143-5

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