Temporal shifts in 24 notifiable infectious diseases in China before and during the COVID-19 pandemic

Kangguo Li, Jia Rui, Wentao Song, Li Luo, Yunkang Zhao, Huimin Qu, Hong Liu, Hongjie Wei, Ruixin Zhang, Buasiyamu Abudunaibi, Yao Wang, Zecheng Zhou, Tianxin Xiang () and Tianmu Chen ()
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Kangguo Li: Xiamen University
Jia Rui: Xiamen University
Wentao Song: Xiamen University
Li Luo: Xiamen University
Yunkang Zhao: Xiamen University
Huimin Qu: Xiamen University
Hong Liu: Xiamen University
Hongjie Wei: Xiamen University
Ruixin Zhang: Xiamen University
Buasiyamu Abudunaibi: Xiamen University
Yao Wang: Xiamen University
Zecheng Zhou: Xiamen University
Tianxin Xiang: The First Affiliated Hospital, Jiangxi Medical College, Nanchang University
Tianmu Chen: Xiamen University

Nature Communications, 2024, vol. 15, issue 1, 1-14

Abstract: Abstract The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, along with the implementation of public health and social measures (PHSMs), have markedly reshaped infectious disease transmission dynamics. We analysed the impact of PHSMs on 24 notifiable infectious diseases (NIDs) in the Chinese mainland, using time series models to forecast transmission trends without PHSMs or pandemic. Our findings revealed distinct seasonal patterns in NID incidence, with respiratory diseases showing the greatest response to PHSMs, while bloodborne and sexually transmitted diseases responded more moderately. 8 NIDs were identified as susceptible to PHSMs, including hand, foot, and mouth disease, dengue fever, rubella, scarlet fever, pertussis, mumps, malaria, and Japanese encephalitis. The termination of PHSMs did not cause NIDs resurgence immediately, except for pertussis, which experienced its highest peak in December 2023 since January 2008. Our findings highlight the varied impact of PHSMs on different NIDs and the importance of sustainable, long-term strategies, like vaccine development.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-48201-8

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