Carbon pricing and system reliability impacts on pathways to universal electricity access in Africa

Hamish Beath (), Shivika Mittal, Sheridan Few, Benedict Winchester, Philip Sandwell, Christos N. Markides, Jenny Nelson and Ajay Gambhir
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Hamish Beath: Imperial College London
Shivika Mittal: Imperial College London
Sheridan Few: Imperial College London
Benedict Winchester: Imperial College London
Philip Sandwell: Imperial College London
Christos N. Markides: Imperial College London
Jenny Nelson: Imperial College London
Ajay Gambhir: Imperial College London

Nature Communications, 2024, vol. 15, issue 1, 1-14

Abstract: Abstract Off-grid photovoltaic systems have been proposed as a panacea for economies with poor electricity access, offering a lower-cost “leapfrog” over grid infrastructure used in higher-income economies. Previous research examining pathways to electricity access may understate the role of off-grid photovoltaics as it has not considered reliability and carbon pricing impacts. We perform high-resolution geospatial analysis on universal household electricity access in Sub-Saharan Africa that includes these aspects via least-cost pathways at different electricity demand levels. Under our “Tier 3" demand reference scenario, 24% of our study’s 470 million people obtaining electricity access by 2030 do so via off-grid photovoltaics. Including a unit cost for unmet demand of 0.50 US dollars ($)/kWh, to penalise poor system reliability increases this share to 41%. Applying a carbon price (around $80/tonne CO2-eq) increases it to 38%. Our results indicate considerable diversity in the level of policy intervention needed between countries and suggest several regions where lower levels of policy intervention may be effective.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-48450-7

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