The first ice-free day in the Arctic Ocean could occur before 2030

Céline Heuzé () and Alexandra Jahn ()
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Céline Heuzé: University of Gothenburg
Alexandra Jahn: University of Colorado Boulder

Nature Communications, 2024, vol. 15, issue 1, 1-10

Abstract: Abstract Projections of a sea ice-free Arctic have so far focused on monthly-mean ice-free conditions. We here provide the first projections of when we could see the first ice-free day in the Arctic Ocean, using daily output from multiple CMIP6 models. We find that there is a large range of the projected first ice-free day, from 3 years compared to a 2023-equivalent model state to no ice-free day before the end of the simulations in 2100, depending on the model and forcing scenario used. Using a storyline approach, we then focus on the nine simulations where the first ice-free day occurs within 3–6 years, i.e. potentially before 2030, to understand what could cause such an unlikely but high-impact transition to the first ice-free day. We find that these early ice-free days all occur during a rapid ice loss event and are associated with strong winter and spring warming.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-54508-3

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