Future increase in compound soil drought-heat extremes exacerbated by vegetation greening

Jun Li, Yao Zhang (), Emanuele Bevacqua, Jakob Zscheischler, Trevor F. Keenan, Xu Lian, Sha Zhou, Hongying Zhang, Mingzhu He and Shilong Piao
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Jun Li: Peking University
Yao Zhang: Peking University
Emanuele Bevacqua: Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research–UFZ
Jakob Zscheischler: Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research–UFZ
Trevor F. Keenan: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
Xu Lian: Columbia University
Sha Zhou: Beijing Normal University
Hongying Zhang: Peking University
Mingzhu He: Peking University
Shilong Piao: Peking University

Nature Communications, 2024, vol. 15, issue 1, 1-12

Abstract: Abstract Compound soil drought and heat extremes are expected to occur more frequently with global warming, causing wide-ranging socio-ecological repercussions. Vegetation modulates air temperature and soil moisture through biophysical processes, thereby influencing the occurrence of such extremes. Global vegetation cover is broadly expected to increase under climate change, but it remains unclear whether vegetation greening will alleviate or aggravate future increases in compound soil drought-heat events. Here, using a suite of state-of-the-art model simulations, we show that the projected vegetation greening will increase the frequency of global compound soil drought-heat events, equivalent to 12–21% of the total increment at the end of 21st century. This increase is predominantly driven by reduced albedo and enhanced transpiration associated with increased leaf area. Although greening-induced transpiration enhancement has counteracting cooling and drying effects, the excessive water loss in the early growing season can lead to later soil moisture deficits, amplifying compound soil drought-heat extremes during the subsequent warm season. These changes are most pronounced in northern high latitudes and are dominated by the warming effect of CO2. Our study highlights the necessity of integrating vegetation biophysical effects into mitigation and adaptation strategies for addressing compound climate risks.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-55175-0

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