Understanding future emissions from low-carbon power systems by integration of life-cycle assessment and integrated energy modelling

Michaja Pehl (), Anders Arvesen, Florian Humpenöder, Alexander Popp, Edgar G. Hertwich and Gunnar Luderer ()
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Michaja Pehl: Potsdam Institute of Climate Impact Research
Anders Arvesen: Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU)
Florian Humpenöder: Potsdam Institute of Climate Impact Research
Alexander Popp: Potsdam Institute of Climate Impact Research
Edgar G. Hertwich: Yale School for Forestry and Environmental Studies
Gunnar Luderer: Potsdam Institute of Climate Impact Research

Nature Energy, 2017, vol. 2, issue 12, 939-945

Abstract: Abstract Both fossil-fuel and non-fossil-fuel power technologies induce life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions, mainly due to their embodied energy requirements for construction and operation, and upstream CH4 emissions. Here, we integrate prospective life-cycle assessment with global integrated energy–economy–land-use–climate modelling to explore life-cycle emissions of future low-carbon power supply systems and implications for technology choice. Future per-unit life-cycle emissions differ substantially across technologies. For a climate protection scenario, we project life-cycle emissions from fossil fuel carbon capture and sequestration plants of 78–110 gCO2eq kWh−1, compared with 3.5–12 gCO2eq kWh−1 for nuclear, wind and solar power for 2050. Life-cycle emissions from hydropower and bioenergy are substantial (∼100 gCO2eq kWh−1), but highly uncertain. We find that cumulative emissions attributable to upscaling low-carbon power other than hydropower are small compared with direct sectoral fossil fuel emissions and the total carbon budget. Fully considering life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions has only modest effects on the scale and structure of power production in cost-optimal mitigation scenarios.

Date: 2017
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DOI: 10.1038/s41560-017-0032-9

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