Designing low-carbon power systems for Great Britain in 2050 that are robust to the spatiotemporal and inter-annual variability of weather

Marianne Zeyringer (), James Price, Birgit Fais, Pei-Hao Li and Ed Sharp
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Marianne Zeyringer: University College London
James Price: University College London
Birgit Fais: University College London
Pei-Hao Li: University College London
Ed Sharp: University College London

Nature Energy, 2018, vol. 3, issue 5, 395-403

Abstract: Abstract The design of cost-effective power systems with high shares of variable renewable energy (VRE) technologies requires a modelling approach that simultaneously represents the whole energy system combined with the spatiotemporal and inter-annual variability of VRE. Here, we soft-link a long-term energy system model, which explores new energy system configurations from years to decades, with a high spatial and temporal resolution power system model that captures VRE variability from hours to years. Applying this methodology to Great Britain for 2050, we find that VRE-focused power system design is highly sensitive to the inter-annual variability of weather and that planning based on a single year can lead to operational inadequacy and failure to meet long-term decarbonization objectives. However, some insights do emerge that are relatively stable to weather-year. Reinforcement of the transmission system consistently leads to a decrease in system costs while electricity storage and flexible generation, needed to integrate VRE into the system, are generally deployed close to demand centres.

Date: 2018
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DOI: 10.1038/s41560-018-0128-x

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