Specification curve analysis

Uri Simonsohn (), Joseph P. Simmons and Leif D. Nelson
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Uri Simonsohn: Universitat Ramon Llull
Joseph P. Simmons: University of Pennsylvania
Leif D. Nelson: University of California

Nature Human Behaviour, 2020, vol. 4, issue 11, 1208-1214

Abstract: Abstract Empirical results hinge on analytical decisions that are defensible, arbitrary and motivated. These decisions probably introduce bias (towards the narrative put forward by the authors), and they certainly involve variability not reflected by standard errors. To address this source of noise and bias, we introduce specification curve analysis, which consists of three steps: (1) identifying the set of theoretically justified, statistically valid and non-redundant specifications; (2) displaying the results graphically, allowing readers to identify consequential specifications decisions; and (3) conducting joint inference across all specifications. We illustrate the use of this technique by applying it to three findings from two different papers, one investigating discrimination based on distinctively Black names, the other investigating the effect of assigning female versus male names to hurricanes. Specification curve analysis reveals that one finding is robust, one is weak and one is not robust at all.

Date: 2020
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DOI: 10.1038/s41562-020-0912-z

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