Modelling the impact of testing, contact tracing and household quarantine on second waves of COVID-19

Alberto Aleta, David Martín-Corral, Ana Pastore y Piontti, Marco Ajelli, Maria Litvinova, Matteo Chinazzi, Natalie E. Dean, M. Elizabeth Halloran, Ira M. Longini, Stefano Merler, Alex Pentland, Alessandro Vespignani (), Esteban Moro () and Yamir Moreno ()
Additional contact information
Alberto Aleta: Institute for Scientific Interchange Foundation
David Martín-Corral: Universidad Carlos III de Madrid
Ana Pastore y Piontti: Northeastern University
Marco Ajelli: Bruno Kessler Foundation
Maria Litvinova: Institute for Scientific Interchange Foundation
Matteo Chinazzi: Northeastern University
Natalie E. Dean: University of Florida
M. Elizabeth Halloran: Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center
Ira M. Longini: University of Florida
Stefano Merler: Bruno Kessler Foundation
Alex Pentland: Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Alessandro Vespignani: Institute for Scientific Interchange Foundation
Esteban Moro: Universidad Carlos III de Madrid
Yamir Moreno: Institute for Scientific Interchange Foundation

Nature Human Behaviour, 2020, vol. 4, issue 9, 964-971

Abstract: Abstract While severe social-distancing measures have proven effective in slowing the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, second-wave scenarios are likely to emerge as restrictions are lifted. Here we integrate anonymized, geolocalized mobility data with census and demographic data to build a detailed agent-based model of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission in the Boston metropolitan area. We find that a period of strict social distancing followed by a robust level of testing, contact-tracing and household quarantine could keep the disease within the capacity of the healthcare system while enabling the reopening of economic activities. Our results show that a response system based on enhanced testing and contact tracing can have a major role in relaxing social-distancing interventions in the absence of herd immunity against SARS-CoV-2.

Date: 2020
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DOI: 10.1038/s41562-020-0931-9

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