Feeding ten billion people is possible within four terrestrial planetary boundaries

Dieter Gerten (), Vera Heck, Jonas Jägermeyr, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Ingo Fetzer, Mika Jalava, Matti Kummu, Wolfgang Lucht, Johan Rockström, Sibyll Schaphoff and Hans Joachim Schellnhuber
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Dieter Gerten: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association
Vera Heck: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association
Jonas Jägermeyr: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association
Benjamin Leon Bodirsky: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association
Ingo Fetzer: Stockholm University
Mika Jalava: Aalto University
Matti Kummu: Aalto University
Wolfgang Lucht: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association
Johan Rockström: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association
Sibyll Schaphoff: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association
Hans Joachim Schellnhuber: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association

Nature Sustainability, 2020, vol. 3, issue 3, 200-208

Abstract: Abstract Global agriculture puts heavy pressure on planetary boundaries, posing the challenge to achieve future food security without compromising Earth system resilience. On the basis of process-detailed, spatially explicit representation of four interlinked planetary boundaries (biosphere integrity, land-system change, freshwater use, nitrogen flows) and agricultural systems in an internally consistent model framework, we here show that almost half of current global food production depends on planetary boundary transgressions. Hotspot regions, mainly in Asia, even face simultaneous transgression of multiple underlying local boundaries. If these boundaries were strictly respected, the present food system could provide a balanced diet (2,355 kcal per capita per day) for 3.4 billion people only. However, as we also demonstrate, transformation towards more sustainable production and consumption patterns could support 10.2 billion people within the planetary boundaries analysed. Key prerequisites are spatially redistributed cropland, improved water–nutrient management, food waste reduction and dietary changes.

Date: 2020
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DOI: 10.1038/s41893-019-0465-1

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