The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment

Richard H. Moss (), Jae A. Edmonds, Kathy A. Hibbard, Martin R. Manning, Steven K. Rose, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Timothy R. Carter, Seita Emori, Mikiko Kainuma, Tom Kram, Gerald A. Meehl, John F. B. Mitchell, Nebojsa Nakicenovic, Keywan Riahi, Steven J. Smith, Ronald J. Stouffer, Allison M. Thomson, John P. Weyant and Thomas J. Wilbanks
Additional contact information
Richard H. Moss: Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory/University of Maryland, 5825 University Research Court, Suite 3500, College Park, Maryland 20740, USA
Jae A. Edmonds: Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory/University of Maryland, 5825 University Research Court, Suite 3500, College Park, Maryland 20740, USA
Kathy A. Hibbard: National Center for Atmospheric Research, 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, Colorado 80305, USA
Martin R. Manning: New Zealand Climate Change Research Institute, Victoria University of Wellington, PO Box 600, Wellington, New Zealand
Steven K. Rose: Electric Power Research Institute, 2000 L Street NW, Suite 805, Washington DC 20036, USA
Detlef P. van Vuuren: Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Postbus 303, 3720 AH Bilthoven, The Netherlands
Timothy R. Carter: Finnish Environment Institute, Box 140, Mechelininkatu 34a, Helsinki 00251, Finland
Seita Emori: National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2, Onogawa, Tsukuba 305-8506, Japan
Mikiko Kainuma: National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2, Onogawa, Tsukuba 305-8506, Japan
Tom Kram: Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Postbus 303, 3720 AH Bilthoven, The Netherlands
Gerald A. Meehl: National Center for Atmospheric Research, 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, Colorado 80305, USA
John F. B. Mitchell: Met Office, Fitzroy Road, Exeter, Devon EX1 3PB, UK
Nebojsa Nakicenovic: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria
Keywan Riahi: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria
Steven J. Smith: Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory/University of Maryland, 5825 University Research Court, Suite 3500, College Park, Maryland 20740, USA
Ronald J. Stouffer: Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Princeton, New Jersey 08542, USA
Allison M. Thomson: Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory/University of Maryland, 5825 University Research Court, Suite 3500, College Park, Maryland 20740, USA
John P. Weyant: Stanford University, Stanford, California 94305, USA
Thomas J. Wilbanks: Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee 37831, USA

Nature, 2010, vol. 463, issue 7282, 747-756

Abstract: Setting the scenes Climatologists use model-based 'scenarios' to provide plausible descriptions of how the future might unfold when evaluating uncertainty about the effects of human actions on climate. The traditional method of establishing these scenarios was a time-consuming sequential process, each discipline taking turns to add data and complexity. As Richard Moss and colleagues explain in a Perspectives review, climate change researchers have now established a new coordinated parallel process that integrates the tasks of developing scenarios, making projections and evaluating their impact. These 'next generation' scenarios should make for faster, more rigorous assessment of proposals for climate mitigation and adaptation.

Date: 2010
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DOI: 10.1038/nature08823

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