The impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in China

Shilong Piao (), Philippe Ciais, Yao Huang, Zehao Shen, Shushi Peng, Junsheng Li, Liping Zhou, Hongyan Liu, Yuecun Ma, Yihui Ding, Pierre Friedlingstein, Chunzhen Liu, Kun Tan, Yongqiang Yu, Tianyi Zhang and Jingyun Fang
Additional contact information
Shilong Piao: College of Urban and Environmental Science, Key Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes of the Ministry of Education, and Center of Climate Research, Peking University
Philippe Ciais: Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, UMR CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Batiment 709, CE L'Orme des Merisiers, Gif-sur-Yvette, F-91191, France
Yao Huang: State Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Physics and Atmospheric Chemistry, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
Zehao Shen: College of Urban and Environmental Science, Key Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes of the Ministry of Education, and Center of Climate Research, Peking University
Shushi Peng: College of Urban and Environmental Science, Key Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes of the Ministry of Education, and Center of Climate Research, Peking University
Junsheng Li: Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences
Liping Zhou: College of Urban and Environmental Science, Key Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes of the Ministry of Education, and Center of Climate Research, Peking University
Hongyan Liu: College of Urban and Environmental Science, Key Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes of the Ministry of Education, and Center of Climate Research, Peking University
Yuecun Ma: College of Urban and Environmental Science, Key Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes of the Ministry of Education, and Center of Climate Research, Peking University
Yihui Ding: Laboratory of Climate Studies, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, No. 46 Zhongguancun Na Da Jie, Beijing 100081, China
Pierre Friedlingstein: Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, UMR CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Batiment 709, CE L'Orme des Merisiers, Gif-sur-Yvette, F-91191, France
Chunzhen Liu: China Water Information Center (Hydrological Bureau), Lane 2 Baiguang Road
Kun Tan: College of Urban and Environmental Science, Key Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes of the Ministry of Education, and Center of Climate Research, Peking University
Yongqiang Yu: State Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Physics and Atmospheric Chemistry, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
Tianyi Zhang: State Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Physics and Atmospheric Chemistry, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
Jingyun Fang: College of Urban and Environmental Science, Key Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes of the Ministry of Education, and Center of Climate Research, Peking University

Nature, 2010, vol. 467, issue 7311, 43-51

Abstract: China's growth factor China, since mid-2010 the world's second biggest economy and tipped to become the biggest in a few decades, has tremendous climatic and ecological diversity. The likely impact of China's economic expansion on the global climate has been extensively studied but little is known about the reverse case — the susceptibility of natural and managed systems in China to climate change. In a Review, Shilong Piao et al. assess the impacts of historical and future climate change on water resources and agriculture in China. They find that in spite of clear trends in climate (especially temperature), overall impacts are overshadowed by natural variability and uncertainties in crop responses and projected climate, especially precipitation. In a best-case scenario, crop production is constant, whereas the worst-case scenario suggests that production could fall by about 20% by 2050.

Date: 2010
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DOI: 10.1038/nature09364

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