Paris Agreement climate proposals need a boost to keep warming well below 2 °C

Joeri Rogelj, Michel den Elzen (), Niklas Höhne (), Taryn Fransen, Hanna Fekete, Harald Winkler, Roberto Schaeffer, Fu Sha, Keywan Riahi and Malte Meinshausen
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Joeri Rogelj: ENE Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Michel den Elzen: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Niklas Höhne: NewClimate Institute
Taryn Fransen: World Resources Institute
Hanna Fekete: NewClimate Institute
Roberto Schaeffer: Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (COPPE/UFRJ)
Fu Sha: National Center for Climate Change Strategy and International Cooperation
Keywan Riahi: ENE Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Malte Meinshausen: Australian-German Climate and Energy College, School of Earth Sciences, The University of Melbourne

Nature, 2016, vol. 534, issue 7609, 631-639

Abstract: Abstract The Paris climate agreement aims at holding global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius and to “pursue efforts” to limit it to 1.5 degrees Celsius. To accomplish this, countries have submitted Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) outlining their post-2020 climate action. Here we assess the effect of current INDCs on reducing aggregate greenhouse gas emissions, its implications for achieving the temperature objective of the Paris climate agreement, and potential options for overachievement. The INDCs collectively lower greenhouse gas emissions compared to where current policies stand, but still imply a median warming of 2.6–3.1 degrees Celsius by 2100. More can be achieved, because the agreement stipulates that targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions are strengthened over time, both in ambition and scope. Substantial enhancement or over-delivery on current INDCs by additional national, sub-national and non-state actions is required to maintain a reasonable chance of meeting the target of keeping warming well below 2 degrees Celsius.

Date: 2016
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DOI: 10.1038/nature18307

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