A macro-financial analysis of the corporate bond market

Hans Dewachter, Leonardo Iania, Wolfgang Lemke and Marco Lyrio ()

No 360, Working Paper Research from National Bank of Belgium

Abstract: We assess the contribution of economic and financial factors in the determination of euro area corporate bond spreads over the period 2001-2015. The proposed multi-market, no-arbitrage affine term structure model is based on the methodology proposed by Dewachter, Iania, Lyrio, and Perea (2015). We model jointly the ‘risk-free curve’, measured by overnight index swap (OIS) rates, and the corporate yield curves for two rating classes (A and BBB). The model includes four spanned and six unspanned factors. We find that, in general, both economic (real activity and inflation) and financial factors (proxying risk aversion, flight to liquidity and general financial market stress) play a significant role in the determination of the spanned factors and hence in the dynamics of the risk-free yield curve and corporate bond spreads. Across the risk-free OIS curve, macroeconomic and financial factors are each responsible on average for explaining 30 and 65 percent of yield variation, respectively. For A-and BBB-rated corporate debt, the selected financial variables explain on average 50 percent of the variation in corporate spreads during the last decade.

Keywords: Euro area corporate bonds; yield spread decomposition; unspanned macro factors (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E43 E44 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 37 pages
Date: 2018-12
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eec, nep-fmk and nep-mac
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Related works:
Journal Article: A macro–financial analysis of the corporate bond market (2019)
Working Paper: A Macro-Financial Analysis of the Corporate Bond Market (2019)
Working Paper: A macro-financial analysis of the corporate bond market (2018)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nbb:reswpp:201810-360

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