Should we recalculate the level of spillover effects if the alternative GDP measures for China are correct?

Anna Sznajderska

Bank i Kredyt, 2021, vol. 52, issue 5, 437-456

Abstract: Official statistics show very stable growth rates of production and prices in recent years in China. These statistics are widely criticized. Alternative measures of China’s GDP suggest that China’s growth rates are exaggerated. This indicates that the slowdown of the Chinese economy is even bigger than usually assumed. In this paper, we try to answer the question whether alternative data on Chinese GDP affect the level of spillover effects of the Chinese economy. To this end, we estimate two alternative GVAR models and compare the obtained results. The usage of the alternative GDP series with a lower growth rate than the official GDP growth rate appears to weaken the spillover effect.

Keywords: alternative GDP measures; spillover effects; GVAR model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 E01 E32 F10 O50 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nbp:nbpbik:v:52:y:2021:i:5:p:437-456

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