Are experts’ probabilistic forecasts similar to the NBP projections?

Halina Kowalczyk () and Ewa Stanisławska

No 238, NBP Working Papers from Narodowy Bank Polski

Abstract: We assess similarity of the Polish central bank’s forecasts published in Inflation Reports and economic experts’ forecasts (from NBP Survey of Professional Forecasters), an important issue in monetary policy. Contrary to other studies which use point forecasts, we are interested is comparing whole forecasts’ distributions. We are especially interested whether the SPF experts mirror the NBP projections. For this purpose, we propose employing methods based on distance between distributions. Unfortunately, substantial heterogeneity of forecasts, as well as short and atypical period analyzed, limit drawing firm conclusions with this respect.

Keywords: survey data; fan charts; probabilistic forecasts; inflation forecasts; GDP growth forecasts; distribution similarity (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D83 D84 E37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-ets, nep-for, nep-pr~, nep-mac and nep-tra
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nbp:nbpmis:238

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