 Has trade been driving global economic growth?No 251, NBP Working Papers from Narodowy Bank Polski Abstract: The last 50 years have produced a series of revolutionary technological changes. These decades have also witnessed a truly revolutionary systemic change at the global level. The change started with step-wise internal liberalisations and deregulations in the major industrialised countries. The internal systemic changes have been synchronised with the consecutive waves of liberalisation of international economic relations. Advancing globalisation has been paralleled by the global economic growth becoming progressively slower and unstable. Using the standard tools of time series econometrics (VEC,Granger non-causality testing, ARDL) the paper suggests that trade has not been driving global economic growth (or even that expanding trade may have slowed down global output growth). Large and persistent trade imbalances which have become typical since the mid- 1970s are just one possible reason for trade no longer playing the positive role assigned to it in the trade theories. The second reason relates to the ‘race-to-thebottom’ tendencies with respect to the wage rate which have developed under globalisation. These tendencies may have been responsible for the persistent shortage of aggregate demand at the global level and – consequently – weakening global output growth. Keywords: world income; world trade; globalisation; wage-led growth; VEC; Granger causality (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nbp:nbpmis:251 Access Statistics for this paper More papers in NBP Working Papers from Narodowy Bank Polski Contact information at EDIRC. |
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