Macroeconomic consequences of the demographic and educational transition in Poland

Aleksandra Kolasa

No 281, NBP Working Papers from Narodowy Bank Polski

Abstract: Soon after the start of the transition to market economy in the early 1990s, Poland has experienced both a dramatic decline in the fertility rate and an increase in the share of students among young high-school graduates. These two processes significantly changed the age structure of the population and average income characteristics of households. Using a general equilibrium model with heterogeneous households and uninsured income shocks I try to assess the impact of these demographic and educational changes on the Polish economic performance and inequalities. I find that in the long term the positive effects of educational transition on output per capita more than offset the negative impact of lower fertility, but the outcome strongly depends on the adjustments in the structure of labor demand. I also show that the educational transition increases income and consumption inequalities, while the demographic transition decreases inequality in assets.

Keywords: population aging; educational transition; inequalities; models with heterogeneous agents (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D31 D58 I24 J11 J26 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 64
Date: 2018
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dem, nep-dge, nep-edu and nep-tra
Note: This paper benefited from comments by Ryszard Kokoszczyński, Marcin Kolasa, Anna Nicińska, Małgorzata Rószkiewicz, Michał Rubaszek, Małgorzata Skibińska, Joanna Wolszczak-Derlacz, an anonymous referee and participants of the 5th NBP Summer Workshop in Warsaw.
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Working Paper: Macroeconomic consequences of the demographic and educational transition in Poland (2017)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nbp:nbpmis:281

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