A new approach to nowcast Indian Gross Value Added
Soumya Bhadury,
Sanjib Pohit (spohit@ncaer.org) and
Robert Beyer
No 115, NCAER Working Papers from National Council of Applied Economic Research
Abstract:
In India, quarterly growth of Gross Value Added (GVA) is published with a large lag and nowcasts are exacerbated by data challenges typically faced by emerging market economies, such as big data revisions, mixed frequencies data publication, small sample size, non-synchronous nature of data releases, and data releases with varying lags. In this paper, we present a new framework to nowcast India’s GVA that incorporates information of mixed data frequencies and other data characteristics. In addition, we add evening-hour luminosity as a crucial high-frequency indicator. Changes in nightlight intensity contain information about economic activity, especially in countries with a large informal sector and significant data challenges, including in India. We illustrate our framework for the ‘trade, hotels, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting’ bloc of the Indian GVA.
Keywords: Nowcasting; India; Gross Value Added; Evening-hour Luminosity; Nightlight data; Dynamic Factor Analysis; EM Algorithm (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 C51 C53 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 35 pages
Date: 2018-06
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-big
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nca:ncaerw:115
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