India at 125: Reclaiming the Lost Glory and Returning the Global Economy to the Old Normal

Arvind Panagariya

No 163, NCAER Working Papers from National Council of Applied Economic Research

Abstract: “According to the GDP estimates by economic historian Angus Maddison, 1st century CE onwards India had the largest share of global GDP for 1500 years and shared the top spot with China until 1870. Today, with India becoming the world’s fifth-largest economy, it is no longer unrealistic to pose the question whether China and India can again come to occupy the top two spots—what is a plausible transition to this old normal? What challenges does India face in its quest to get there and what is the pathway to conquering those? How will the race between the USA, China, and India evolve once India becomes the world’s third-largest economy? The paper also explores the assumptions behind predicted growth rates for India to catch up with the USA by 2072.â€

Keywords: Economy; Economic Growth; GDP (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 21 pages
Date: 2024-02-01
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