Trade Effects Estimation for the Case of Eurasian Economic Space Countries: Application of Regional Gravity Model

A. Mogilat and Vladimir Salnikov
Additional contact information
A. Mogilat: Institute of Economic Forecasting Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia

Journal of the New Economic Association, 2015, vol. 27, issue 3, 80-108

Abstract: The article develops a methodology of manufactured goods trade effects estimation for the case of Eurasian Economic Space (EES) Countries (Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan). The approach is based on projection of intra-country trade gravity model estimates on trade within EES countries. We consider the "border puzzle" in trade to be an extra long-term effect of integration. The model is estimated using data on manufactured goods trade between Russian regions in 2012. We provide a comparative analysis of a wide range of econometric approaches, including simultaneous-quantile regression, scarcely used before for gravity model estimation. As a result, we choose a model, which provides the best fit between actual volumes of trade between regions and the model-based ones. We have shown, that Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood estimator provides the highest accuracy of estimates. According to our estimates the highest increase of trade is expected for trade flows between Belarus and Russia, as well as for Russian export to Kazakhstan.

Keywords: gravity model; Poisson estimator; regions of Russia; Eurasian Economic Space; "border puzzle"; integration (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C13 C21 F14 F15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.econorus.org/repec/journl/2015-27-80-108r.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nea:journl:y:2015:i:27:p:80-108

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of the New Economic Association is currently edited by Victor Polterovich and Aleksandr Rubinshtein

More articles in Journal of the New Economic Association from New Economic Association Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Alexey Tcharykov ().