Is the External Labor Migration an Economic Growth Factor: Econometric Analysis and Policy Implications for the CIS Countries

S. Chepel and K. Bondarenko
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S. Chepel: Institute of Forecasting and Macroeconomic Researches under the Cabinet of Ministers of the Republic of Uzbekistan, Tashkent, Uzbekistan
K. Bondarenko: Institute of Forecasting and Macroeconomic Researches under the Cabinet of Ministers of the Republic of Uzbekistan, Tashkent, Uzbekistan

Journal of the New Economic Association, 2015, vol. 28, issue 4, 142-166

Abstract: Recent intensification of CIS countries instability has led to an intensification of migration flows in the post-soviet space. By providing multidirectional impact on the various growth factors, migration may both accelerate the development of specific countries and slow it down. The paper determines the issue of receiving higher benefit from these processes - either labor-exporting (the countries of Central Asia, Ukraine) or labor-importing countries (Russia). Using international organizations databases and the instrumental variables regression methodology we confirmed the hypothesis that in general in the long term for developing labor-exporting countries high level of labor migration constrains economic growth, although there may occur contrary situation at certain development conditions. The calculated threshold value for labor migrant remittances defines the value that inversely changes the impact of migration process on economic growth. We estimated elasticity coefficients of economic growth for certain countries of Central Asia. We defined practical recommendations to increase economic growth inclusivity of these countries by providing special economic measures, such as accelerating development of small industrial businesses and creating large numbers of new sustainable jobs.

Keywords: economic growth; migration; remittances; institutional quality; human capital (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C51 F22 F24 J11 O15 O50 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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