Climate change and migration decisions: A choice experiment from the Mekong Delta, Vietnam

Tra Thi Trinh and Alistair Munro
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Tra Thi Trinh: National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, Tokyo, Japan

No 22-07, GRIPS Discussion Papers from National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies

Abstract: Forecasting the impact of climate change on migration is difficult, given widespread reliance on historical data and limited exposure to actual climate change amongst target populations. This study takes a different approach, developing a new methodology that employs a choice experiment to examine intentions to migrate among farmers living in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta, one of the areas in the world most significantly affected by climate change. The respondents are asked to make migration choices for scenarios constructed using six attributes: drought intensity, flood frequency, income change from migration, migration networks, neighbors’ choices, and crop choice restriction. The results suggest that increasing the intensity/frequency of drought/flood increases the likelihood of migration; the effects are stronger for individuals with prior experience of climate change. Furthermore, the contribution of network attribute is gendered and dependent on migration experience. Finally, crop choice restriction, such as those widely employed by the Vietnamese government to control rice planting, may trigger a higher probability of migration. These findings provide insights into the debate on climate change-migration nexus in rural and lowland areas that are seriously affected by climate change. Furthermore, extensive choice experiment data on migration preferences under a diverse range of climate variabilities facilitates projections of environmentally induced migration.

Keywords: Climate change; migration; choice experiment; drought and saline intrusion; flood; Vietnam; Mekong Rivers (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 32 pages
Date: 2022-05
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr, nep-dcm, nep-env, nep-mig and nep-sea
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Journal Article: Climate change and migration decisions: A choice experiment from the Mekong Delta, Vietnam (2024)
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