Does voter turnout affect the votes for the incumbent government?

Rodrigo Martins and Francisco Veiga

No 15/2013, NIPE Working Papers from NIPE - Universidade do Minho

Abstract: This paper analyzes the effects of voter turnout on the vote shares received by the incumbent government. A system of simultaneous equations is estimated using a panel dataset of 278 Portuguese municipalities, for the period 1979-2005, covering 10 legislative elections. The results indicate that right-wing governments have lower vote shares when turnout is higher, while left-wing ones seem to be unaffected. There is also evidence of the responsibility hypothesis, that turnout is higher in closer elections, and that regional/local economic variables have non-linear effects on turnout.

Keywords: Vote shares; Turnout; Legislative Elections; Portugal (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D72 H7 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cdm, nep-pbe and nep-ure
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Related works:
Journal Article: Does voter turnout affect the votes for the incumbent government? (2014)
Working Paper: Does Voter Turnout Affect the Votes for the Incumbent Government? (2013)
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