Growth, Centrism and Semi-Presidentialism: Forecasting the Portuguese General Elections

Luís Aguiar-Conraria () and Pedro C. Magalhães ()
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Pedro C. Magalhães: University of Lisbon, Social Sciences Institute,

No 20/2008, NIPE Working Papers from NIPE - Universidade do Minho

Abstract: Electoral behaviour in recently established democracies has been more frequently treated from the point of view of its unpredictability, volatility and personalistic elements than that of its "fundamentals". In this paper, we wish to contribute to redress this imbalance by advancing a forecasting model for general elections in a young democracy, Portugal. Building on the very familiar notion that the vote for the incumbent can be predicted on the basis of "economics" and "politics", we capture "economics" through a nonlinear specification of economic growth. Furthermore, we include two structural features of Portuguese politics, which have entailed a systematic electoral punishment for the centre-left Socialist Party as the incumbent and for all incumbents involved in political conflicts with the elected president in Portugal's semi-presidentialism.

Keywords: Forecasting; Portuguese general elections; Economics and elections; Semi-Presidentialism (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2008
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-for and nep-pol
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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