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Augmenting migration statistics with expert knowledge

Arkadiusz Wisniowski, Nico Keilman, Jakub Bijak, Solveig Christiansen, Jonathan J. Forster, Peter W.F Smith and James Raymer
Additional contact information
Arkadiusz Wisniowski: University of Southampton
Nico Keilman: University of Oslo
Jakub Bijak: University of Southampton
Solveig Christiansen: University of Oslo
Jonathan J. Forster: University of Southampton
Peter W.F Smith: University of Southampton
James Raymer: University of Southampton

No 2012005, Norface Discussion Paper Series from Norface Research Programme on Migration, Department of Economics, University College London

Abstract: International migration statistics vary considerably from one country to another in terms of measurement, quality and coverage. Furthermore, immigration tend to be captured more accurately than emigration. In this paper, we first describe the need to augment reported flows of international migration with knowledge gained from experts on the measurement of migration statistics, obtained from a multi-stage Delphi survey. Second, we present our methodology for translating this information into prior distributions for input into the Integrated Modelling of European Migration (IMEM) model, which is designed to estimate migration flows amongst countries in the European Union (EU) and European Free Trade Association (EFTA), by using recent data collected by Eurostat and other national and international institutions. The IMEM model is capable of providing a synthetic data base with measures of uncertainty for international migration flows and other model parameters.

Date: 2012-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eur and nep-mig
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